[Music]
[Applause]
and you're going to be able to to try
your prediction Market uh live so let's
start so the goal is to learn about
prediction market and outcome tokens and
your goal for the game is going to be to
have the highest amount of tokens it's
uh irrespective of what the other player
have you don't want to have more token
than the other you just want to get the
highest amount of token for yourself
so prediction Market Basics so what is a
prediction Market a prediction Market is
a way to make prediction about the
future uh using markets where people can
place order on what will happen so for
example we will win the US election you
can get tokens of trump you can get
token of Aris and if Trump wins well the
Trump token will redeem for some money
if Aris wins the AR token will redem for
some money and by looking at the price
of the token you can make prediction
about the
future so this can also allow you to get
more complex signal such as for example
what will be the price of Bitcoin if
Aris wins versus what would be the price
of Bitcoin if Trump
wins and what do we need to make a
prediction market so you need a question
you need a list of
outcomes like who will win the election
for example you need an oracle you need
a way to report the outcome of this
Market so for example reality or and
claros and I see the reality F there and
lot of claros Team there you need a time
where you can start uh to uh resolve the
market and obviously you need to get an
underlying token what you will earn if
your prediction is
successful so the basic of prediction
Market you will have uh one token that
we call the underlying token so here in
my side it's die where you are here uh
is going to be the coin that you have
you put it into this market and then you
will get one token of each of the
potential outcomes so here you put some
die and then you get some token for the
Democrats winning the election the
Republican winning the election or some
else winning the election and when you
look at the price of the tokens that
gives you some probability of this
particular event
happening so we're going to start our
first game so before that everyone take
for 500 worth of coins so pod leader
give 500 wors of coins to everyone in
your
pod 500 worth of coins to everyone in
your pod
oh we don't have any P leader
there who the P leader there is no P
leader there wait uh can you can you be
leader there yeah okay yeah this
P what's happening the people at the
back are empty someone there or I could
ask everyone to get up and there is no P
leader over there does they have they
have the coin or not they have coins
yeah uh maybe Mick Mick can you take
this p
do they have cards no you don't have
cards there is nothing here I don't know
how you even got the coin so if you want
to play you have to go in some other pod
this has to be empty
so now pod leaders take the first sheet
of mm which is cat and dog and put a
token where it's in bold italan bold on
both of the markets put a token where
it's in
bold everybody
yeah you have to take the sheet here and
the cat and dog cat and dog everyone
take a cat and
dog is there a poer here there is no
poer
here uh
wait yeah you take it and you put a coin
I gave you a coin on the B stuff
so put the
coins put the coins there you don't yeah
this the small coins you put the small
coin for the amm you have
it you have
it you have it you have it okay this is
working there you have it you everything
okay you have here
okay what repeat the first basics of the
like just the first moment some they
should be po leer everywhere and this
should be po leer everywhere like pod
leaders who should be able to uh execute
the amm
so if anybody has some issue and do not
have the dog the C dog paper raise your
hand if anybody has an
issue okay so you all have the 500 coins
right everyone has
500 everyone has the market maker sheet
okay so now what you can do you can buy
cat tokens if you seeing that it's a cat
or you can buy dog's token if you think
that it's a dog and the price is given
to you on the amm
sheet and what you can also do if you
wish you can give a 100 coins and get a
complete set of both so you have open
the box a right you have all the Box a
okay so now you can start to trade on
with this amm buying or selling tokens
of cat and
dogs and if you have any question at any
point don't hesitate to raise your
hand
yeah you have the you have your coins no
you don't have your coin wait wait let
me I come back with
you wait it was here was they not have
the coins so you need to have the coin
here on your C dog so you have the coins
here okay
so this means that you can from the bank
you can buy token of cat at 50 and then
you move it up or you can buy token of
dog at 50 and then you move it up
and yes and you have to open the box a
has everyone open the box a pod leaders
have you open the box
a yeah open the box a and you will see
the token no no that's that's the Box a
so here we need a pod leader uh p p can
you be pod leader
there just take a seat here and uh take
a seat and Lead this
pod so what is here we don't have P
leader
here where is the P
leader are you leading a
p are you leading a pod
uh so here each chip uh each 100 uh they
get one that's the cat and dog ones you
have the cat and dog in box
a so
here you you can buy at this price and
you can sell at the price just above any
amount one by one so Circle
you can have like if multiple people
want to buy at the same time
yes can I shove on that what's my what
size can I bet before it moves you can
do one by one so you have here
have so give uh how much size can I put
in before the no it's already one by one
so you have to pay 50 you pay 50 50 okay
that's my Max size I can do at this
price and now it's moving yeah okay you
put that back into
okay
I'm you're going to be B
holding you get the cat cat B here and
this isna the cat thanks for the exit
liquidity the dog press is too good
now so do we anyway we can understand
what yeah because there should be a p
leader here why don't we have a p leader
here oh you are here right okay can you
leave this SP yeah
yeah so it's
5050 I was talking
with
okay
yeah do you have a PO oh yeah you have a
poer here
okay
yes yeah you have the coin okay put it
and start to under your p
okay here what here reason you have the
Pod so oh thank you you are starting
here and every time you move you are
going to move the the
coin and what you can also do is you can
give 100 and get a complete set so both
a cat and a dog if you want to sell them
after what
cart and dog are in the card set in the
pack a it's in the pack
a yeah open it is inside
so CLA can you take this p take the sh
the share here and take this
P so
so how uh if they give me a 100 they
should get one if they give you 100 they
they get that and then the cat also
okay so for for example he is giving me
a 100 yeah uh so so what what do I do
what do you want to do you want to buy
cat or you want to buy dog so you can
you can only give 50 you give 50 and you
will get one token of cat okay 50 you
get the token of the small small one 100
one and then uh you move cat up no no no
you you just uh you just put it in the
in the
bank 60 for cat now now you have to pay
60 for cat or what you can do if you
want you can pay 100 and you get a
complete set so you get both cat and
dogs you can use it to sell it but to
sell it you sell to the price above
you buy to the current price and you
sell to the price which is just
above no you can either buy to the amm
here you either buy to the amm okay or
you are minting a complete set so you
give 100 and you get
both
yes if you put 200 you will get both of
those yeah you get both sets why you get
both sets if you put
200 and then after you can sell it if
you want to take a
position no no you can set it here to
the amm you can go and set it there yeah
uh wait here uh you need to be in the
middle of the Pod it's not going to work
otherwise go to the middle of the Pod
yeah can can you yeah move move one one
here can you both move one on the right
and and go
here so what's happening here are
you okay but still at
yeah we're not understanding so are you
in a pod where there is a pod
leader do you have a pod leader here or
not no if you don't have a pod leader go
to a pod where there is a pod
leader oh you're the Pod leader okay so
yeah are you undering the P can you
please explain this part so we can we
can pay
100 and one dog if you pay 100 you get
one cat and one dog right all you can
pay to the market maker the current
price but you will get only one side and
when you do that you're going to move
the
token okay if you buy one cat is going
to the next cat is going to cost 60
right do we have to buy you can also
sell but you sell to the price which is
above and also you move the
token have
yeah like the bank is going to give you
back the
money the bank can do the you the bank
yes go here and you will give back the
money so you what do you want to buy you
want to buy a cat or a
dog okay let's you want to buy a cat so
you give
100 to the bank okay you will get 50
back and you want it to get a cat and
now it's mve and now the next cat is
going to cost
60 yes that's not the right cat that's
the yeah the 100 cat yeah and this one
this is the dog yeah and you can buy it
and it's
moved it's independent
yeah okay what so what what are you do
what are you here do you have a p leer
here you don't have AER here right oh no
you theer right
I use
a so you have cat and
dogs we don't have the
we okay so you have opened the box
a you gave the Box a
there no so you have the the cat and
dogs over there
so what have what have you done like you
you split into how many pods here are
you many how many
pod yeah just do one pod uh like we
do they have no
leader they have no none of these three
so can you do a can you do
there all different place why do we have
three things here what is that why is
that this this is
[Music]
not should go down by how much what you
put in was effective possible to buy or
sale more than one no one by one one by
one yeah prediction
Market but that's going to be hard to
get if you now like it's already way
more people than expected so I can't get
anyone in
sorry yeah does the price of one token
influence the other no no
so you what you can also do you can give
100 and get a set of B
tokens
yeah so if you want you can give 100 to
the bank and get both cat and dogs that
can be useful if you want to sell them
because here the price of both are
increasing so you can get some profit by
giving a getting both a cat and a dog
and selling both yeah
is that correct
yeah so here there is nothing
right yeah you set it to the price just
up yeah and you're moving the
price you sell both yeah and so you pay
100 and you got one 14 so you got 40 of
profit so it's not buying it's a minting
so you are minting complete
set yeah for 100 you get
both no matter what the price yeah
so do you have the leader
here and that's the current uh okay and
it's it's back to 50/50 right it moved
up and down it's back to 5050 okay
okay why is the price
t50 did you
do okay
okay okay so what what do you want to
buy cat or dogs
I you want to buy dogs
right
so where are your
tokens where are this
so and where are the cats where the
cats uh over there why has the cats over
there like are you okay you got no one
oh I I got the one understand so the
here is the C is a cat and dog right yes
oh okay
because this C is both like there's a
two category inside and the dog yeah so
we didn't know this C have to
become so
going just merge the Pod like just go
all around in the middle and merge your
pod do only one pod you you only have
like one set of card do only it's only
one p yeah okay
so everyone move to the center to make
your
P put this in the center so the you need
a
ship put this here okay the you need
this ship you have your ship right yeah
5 so now you can buy cats and you can
buy dogs so have to seate the
C so you have the bank right do you
think you can under the Pod huh you can
under the Pod under you can under the
Pod how so you are playing the bank
right okay so if you are there please go
closer if you are there please go closer
this pod does not exist this is a
p
so you want to
buy uh can okay okay so if you want to
buy cat where are the cats
here
50 50 you 100 right you get 50 back and
you get cat and then the price of the
cat is
increasing
okay everybody everybody can do the same
thing and get tokens of cats or
dogs okay so right now if 60 if you want
to buy buy cat I have to pay 60 right no
you have to pay 60 to buy a cat then
going to 7 and it's going to go to 7 yes
this doesn't move this doesn't move no
but what you can do at any time is you
can pay 100 to get a set of both cats
and dogs okay this is first round this
is only only one card no matter how much
I buy also one card how much what no
matter how much I bought also one you
will get 100 if it's a
cat no uh if a cat you will get 100 oh
okay so to buy you have to buy 60 and
then you will get one
cut yeah now you buy 60 get you get one
cut and this is going
up okay
here consensus yeah yeah that's okay
that that's good
we have is this is
this so what you can do is you can pay
100 to get both cats and dogs and in
this case you can make some profit
right oh no it's okay yeah so if you pay
100 you will get both and you can sell
it back to the market and you can no you
can sell it only you sell to the up so
you will sell it only for 90 so it's not
going to
work it's going to work but you're going
to lose money so for now the the prices
are
good yeah hey one question yeah can you
meet multiple times yes you can me how
many times as many time so there's not
one show show me no no I
me the should talk the should talk is
normal
so what's happening in this
SP if we if we sell if we sell a dog
yeah we we get 50 no you get the price
up so we will get 40
only 40 you get 40 only so sell one by
one so you sell one dog right so it's
going to go here and you get 40 ah okay
so you get
40 okay
okay okay okay now now it's your
turn you can like as long as there is no
multiple people wanted to play at the
same time you can play whenever you want
if you're multiple make a queue but uh
do do we need do we need that to to Su
up 100 always no no no it doesn't need
to S to 100 but you can give 100 and get
both okay
okay so you this part is
working and you are you you stay at
5050 okay
you can trade with other player if you
wish it's
okay minting does not move the price no
yeah it doesn't need to Su up now it's
price probability yeah it's a price yeah
it's a price
probability okay so everyone finished
so please if you have any last question
tell me before we finish the first uh
round
what what is
it okay any last
question is there any last
question all the P are
working okay okay
so everyone we're goingon to now uh stop
the amm oh last order we're going to
stop the
amm last order last
order do we have a last
order okay so every everything is done
perfect so please SP leader close the
amm and so now we're going to uh first
if you if the price of the dog in your
pod yeah you the ammr Clos it's not
possible to trade anymore is the price
of the dog is higher in your pod raise
the
hand is the price of the dog is higher
raise your hand here's the dogs are
higher the dogs are higher here
okay the dogs are higher okay if the
cats are higher raise your hand if your
p as cat price higher raise your hand
okay cat price cat
price so we see four pods with cats
being higher and three with dogs being
higher and so now you will get the
reveal and that was a
[Applause]
cat so now if you have dog tokens they
are worth nothing
and if you have cat tokens you can
redeem them for the amount of Point
written on
them 50 oh okay
okay wiely
they are asking if they can keep the
card as a
souvenir yeah it's okay they can keep
the card it's okay
okay so did you all manage to redeem if
there is any question raise your
hand so no question let's go to the next
element so now we're going to open
another
market so this is going to be a
Market about whether or not I'm going to
say the word there in the
mic if I'm going to say the word there
in the mic so if within 10 slide I say
this
word this specific token the token on
the left is going to redeem otherwise
that will be the other token which will
redeem so all all the Pod remove the cat
and dog amm this amm is over and take
the second amm
about this particular word that I can't
say or maybe I will say it we will see
that are you trying to trick
me so if this world if I say the word if
I say the word you will get the token on
the left which will redeem if I don't
say it within 20 slide you will get the
token on the right which will
rede and P pan where is the
suitcase I need the suitcase because
there is your stuff inside under the
suitcase where is the
suitcase you have to find that as soon
as possible because it disappear this
like uring the
workshop or
no you can keep the
C
yeah is the question is whether or not I
will say this
word someone is trying to trick me
why is the big
suitcase where is the big
suitcase like someone took my big
suitcase oh
what happened
like where where is the content on my
suit
case yeah the content
disappeared like I have some content for
the workshop which is
uh that's prob number four
five it's it's okay it's okay I have
everything
so why interesting things that we are
seeing here is how the market can
potentially affect reality because I see
a bunch of people trying to make me say
the
word so it's not necessarily the main
goal of prediction Market but you could
potentially use prediction Market to
incentivize some particular stakeholder
to do a particular
thing you you could see that so here we
have a participant uh we is saying that
it's a something similar to assination
Market I don't think prediction Market
are very suitable to make assassination
Market but they could inadvertently
become one and that's why you have to
make sure that your rule do not allow
that so for example in claros we have as
an arbitrator we have a set of rule on
what we can rule and what we cannot rule
on and Market which are antical are
going to be uh rule as invalid so they
will not resolve
normally and this for example happened a
couple of week ago where you had a
question about some amas leader being
removed like about some amas leader
being control of amas and obviously the
most likely way that he will not be in
control will be him being killed
so here the Oracle returned that it was
the invalid
Market
yeah
yeah so for us if the main source of
uncertainty is something which is moral
we will refuse to
arbitrate if there is other sources of
uncertainty like for example if Trump
was assassinated before the election
will probably arbitrate because the main
uncertainty is not whether Trump will be
killed it's whether he will win the
election or not so the main source of
uncertainty is a vote of the American
people not a potential assassination so
there we will have rule on this Market
well at least that's that for me I would
have ruled this Market valid as valid
yeah you you trade within your pod only
within your pod yeah
yeah sometimes they want to say in the A
and S yeah if you if you sell you sell
to the price just above
so if you sell you sell to the price
above and you move it
yeah it doesn't need to be balanced the
market don't need to be balanced if the
markets are unbalanced what you can can
do is give a 100 coin and get a token of
both and you can make some
profit if you want you can give 100 coin
and get both
tokens and then you can sell
them you can already get both for 100
[Music]
6 that's good
yeah if you want you can also you can
also give those back and get
100 no you can if you want to get 100
you have to give a complete
set you get the price just above
okay just above yeah just above
yeah
no okay so sometime markets do not
resolve immediately so this Market is
gonna stay on because for now it's still
undetermined we still don't know if I'm
going to say the word or not uh and
we're going to go to another Market
so another type of Market please
everyone everyone we're going to
explain please everyone silence a bit
thank you yeah so another type of Market
uh is scalar market so not only we can
predict event but we can also try to
predict values so for example here we
will want to predict the inflation in
2015 and to do that we set up a range we
can say from zero to
10% and now we will have some up token
and down token so if the inflation is
higher than
10% the up token are going to redeem if
the inflation is lower or 0% the down
token is going to redeem but if the
inflation is actually within the range
so between 0o and
10% both tokens are going to redeem
proportionally so if it's 8% the up
token is going to redeem for uh 80 cent
and done token is going to redeem for 20
cent so this is interesting because
that's how you can estimate value and if
you saw at the start of the workshop I
was showing you the Bitcoin price market
and this was the scalar Market to
estimate the value of the Bitcoin
price so now we're going to go to this
Market about my age so you can go on the
age market and the goal is to find uh
old I am so if I'm like 40 for example
the up token will redeem
for 40 and the Don token will redeem for
60 so everyone know and keep the
previous Market the previous Market
about the world it's still open you can
still trade on it if you want at some
point so open the speaker AG
market and in this
market you you obviously know I'm not a
negative age and I'm not 100 years old
so the tokens are going to redeem not
completely both token are going to
redeem but you you don't know exactly
for how much so if I'm older the up
token is going to read more if I'm
younger the D token is going to read
more
[Music]
yeah that's
E I know but I'm not going to reveal it
at least not yet
that's B you have B you don't have B I
can give you a
b we don't have the speaker on we don't
have speakers
or D
[Music]
and so if you missing it I have B is
candle B is
candle no m in each P okay it's not only
one thing so you have it this is
or we
don'tk is that Pro 7 the starting prices
for these so
starting there okay so what which token
you want to
buy so you want to buy okay so you pay
30 the price increases here and you get
the no that's the weight that's not this
this is
the that wasn't
so if you bu so so here you are not
necessarily betting on something in the
abstract you are looking at the current
price so here your price is 32 so if you
think that I am older than 32 you should
buy
up
exactly so you should have your like for
yourself you should have some estimate
of what is my age you look at the market
is the market correct don't do
anything if the market you think is
incorrect you can either buy up or down
whether or not you think this Market is
too high or too
lowet it says I'm 32 here here I say I
32
exactly this is the price of the da
token the da token is going to redeem
200 minus my age
so so if you think that I am younger if
you think that I am younger than 30 you
can buy the Don
token yeah minute
yeah uh I just came late so I end the
session so what is this game all about
can you pick up a pod pick up a pod and
ask
the you need an Oracle and I'm working
at Clos which is
Oracle hi
let me see
your I I saved two days
ago
what the maximum is
100 so the age up token is redeeming for
my age the age Don token is redeeming
for 100 minus my
age
yeah this is one is younger
here this is age up no no no age down
this one is age down age
down
yeah I think by orell if I think
so you so here it's not about exact just
what you think it's about whether you
think the market is overvaluing or
undervaluing so here you have
68 so if you think that I am uh younger
than no younger than
32 younger than 32 because you have to
do 100 minus the price if you think that
I am younger than 32 you should buy and
if you think that I am older than 30 you
should buy the up token
okay think get
it so how old do you think I am 34 or
[Music]
30 yes
you need
what
so here you are not making a bet in the
abstract but you are predicting whether
uh my age is higher or lower than what
this Market is currently giving
currently the market is giving 30 so if
you think that I am older than 30 you
should buy the age up token if you think
that I am younger than uh how much you
have to pay for that then how much do I
have to pay cost for
that well it's here you can see
here so if you want to buy the age up
token it's uh
30 and it's going to redeem for my age
so if you think that my age is above 30
you will make some profit but if my age
is under if it's under 30 you will lose
some money so you are not making a
prediction in the abstract you are
predicting toward the value not just an
outcome toward the value and for that
you have to look at market
prices the age up is the one with the
old guy and the age down is the guy with
one with the young
guy so I'm 34 here okay
I'm 36
here yeah
yeah so if you think that I'm older than
30 you can buy age up because it's going
to redeem for my age if you think that I
am younger you can buy age down okay
because so that's because Age dawn is
gonna redeem 400 minus my
age oh just put this one this one is
just in just like three this one just
three of
this so don't don't bother with this one
just in case you had too many people but
okay
okay this is the token you want to use
yeah yeah so here you have to look at
the market and if you think the market
is
underestimating or overestimating my
age so here if you think that I am older
than 30 you should should buy up if you
think that I am younger you should buy
down you done so it's you for now you
have to pay
70 and and this token is going to redeem
for 100 minus my
age this one is 100 minus my age this
one is my
age
yeah yeah it's
you can mint a complete set and sell the
age down if you want to so to me a
complete set you give 100 and you get
both yeah you 100 you
get
and what is that the idea yeah
buy if if the price are too much
diverging that's a profitable strategy
to give 100 and get both sometime you
can make profit by doing that
and and this is the AG like it's going
to resolve to your actual age to my age
yeah
okay if you have any last question
before we close the
market okay so now we GNA we are closing
the age Market the World Market is still
there so everyone we are closing the age
market amm and I'm 32 so this means the
up token are going to redeem for 32 and
the down for
68 I've look at a few pod and we could
see the age in the Pod was between 30 to
36 so maybe on average maybe 33 so we
can see we had a pretty nice estimation
of my age with this
mechanism so you can redeem your token
yeah if you have any question don't
hesitate to raise your hand and I will
come
help
yeah from ogre um Clos is a let's say a
scalable version of ogre and also allows
a different sort of use cases because we
have a tree of Courts we have a tree of
Courts yeah so orur is just doing
prediction Market well well no he's not
doing much because he more dead uh
but uh for claros you can have
prediction Market You Can Have Anything
You Can Have curation you can have some
insurance and as a jural you're going to
stti in a particular court and you're
going to be drawn in only in the court
that you are specifically want to be
participating in and also contrary to um
to Aur uh with scaros you will um be
randomly drawn you don't H everyone to
to stake on anything it's only uh the
draw which are
drawn so most of the time it it takes
only a small amount of work from jals
and
thenur is a bit similar but also you
choose your own dispute while in Clos
you don't in Clos you choose your court
but not your own dispute but both
project like both mechanism are pretty
similar because we are both taking we
are both taking this from trustcoin so
trustcoin was this Ching mechanism made
by po star except the guy was a maxi bit
Maxi so he never managed to release the
it was
trustcoin trustcoin set up this
mechanism initially uh but they never
release like the guy was wanted to make
it on bitcoin which was I think
invisible and uh oh uma uma is looking a
bit similar
to
mechanism um or it's a mix of both let's
say but it's you everyone vote on
everything but also keep in mind like
poly Market is using Uma uh but in
practice like have some key so it's not
like real centralized
usage poly Market Oracle is working so
is they making a call to Yar um but also
they have some admin which can overrule
umaa if they want to and umaa is
everyone but on everything
okay so now we have another
Market which is going to be a scalar
Market the weight market and uh here I
have some item that we can light to make
smell made by pon pon by the way uh and
so what you're going to do is you're
going to try to determine what is the
weight in gram of this
item someone to trying
so you have this
item what you have this item and you
have to try to determine the weight in
gram of this item so everyone take the
weight amm set up the weight amm you can
still keep the word am the word am is
still there and now you have the weight
amm where you want to
estimate the weight of this item
blind well if you are blind you should
probably not participate in the
market so if you want to see the
item I'm showing the
item no you cannot feel it you can just
see
it yeah you can take a picture if you
want
to no you can touch but you cannot uh
weighted someone is trying to trick me
again you
know
yeah that's the
item it
is what is the weight in gram of this
item
yes it
is only look only
look uh it's an item it's smelling nice
you can smell it you
know right
it's uh to make some nice smell you know
you can smell it no don't don't touch it
because it will be unfair and I don't
have time
to it's done by my
girlfriend so the
item so you try to estimate how many
grams no yeah there is there too many
people so we will not have time to get
everyone to hey someone is cheating
someone is
cheating but you can take a picture if
you want to look at it a
lot it's just done by my girlfriend it's
not a brand like it's it's made in my
[Laughter]
kitchen uh this is the up token
toen the world thing it's the wall item
not just the wax the world
item so if the weight is above 40 gram
you can buy up if you think the weight
is below 50 gram you can buy the Don
token
only smell it
because it would be unfair I don't have
time to give it to everyone
[Music]
you get
the e
so did you all managed to determine the
weight of this
[Applause]
candle keep in mind the markets are
still open the market are still open
yes yeah the market are still
open the market are still open in mind
I can print it I'm the one who made
it what it's avable I made
it want
to yeah they can still buy
here so keep in mind the market is open
still open
oh
yeah open you
can
yeah
yeah yeah that market was instantly
closed or the point that's the point I'm
going to
make yeah it's still open yeah
yeah so keep in mind the market both
Market are still
open I can't un say it it's not possible
to UNS say it
yeah
yeah oh this one we can remove it's
[Music]
finished okay so now we're closing the
CLE Market the market of the CLE is
closed
so everyone silence please everyone
silence please so here we had this
market and whether I will say the word
candle but the issue with this Market is
that we will not really know when we
will know because you will not know when
I will say it and you will not know when
I will or you will not know when I will
go to slide 20 so for you it's good you
are Traders you can make some money like
you have something which is known and
you can get basically free money by
buying the token candle but for the
liquidity provider it's very bad and so
for a lot of markets where we don't know
when we know it's extremely risky to put
liquidity because as soon as the answer
to the question is publicly known people
are going to jump on the amm and take
all the token of the right answer so
here if you are here about the about the
CLE immediately you're going to go to a
price of 100 and the amm is going to
sell some token which at this point it's
are publicly known to be worth 100 for
way less than 100 so that's why you see
most of the prediction Market will be
stuff like elections because election
you have a very uh cut of date where you
know when you know but if you are making
a market for example will the war in
Ukraine stop well you don't know when it
stop or it doesn't stop so for of those
markets it tend to be extremely hard to
get liquidity so what you can do you can
subsidize the liquidity knowing that the
liqu provider will lose money but then
they should get more in the in the
liquidity subsidies
or we will need to have other form of uh
market makers which do not allow you to
just buy and sell at any time so we are
working also at with with here on making
some mix of amm and auction so that you
have some one or two hour to over beid
other people who are interacting with
the market maker specifically for Market
where we don't know when we know to make
it way less risky for liquidity
providers so this for now has not been
implemented that like a research uh
Direction but it's a huge par for
prediction Market uh to provide
liquidity uh the revolution
loss and so now on the weight of the
candle the
weight is 226
gram you can
but you can check here if you want to if
you don't try the orle you can it's on
the balance there if you want to
check so this means that the up token
are going to redeem for 100 and the down
token redeem for zero oh Market is done
oh yeah the market about the weight is
uh
closed it's closed also yeah yeah so no
both Market are closed there is no open
market left and you can redeem the up
token on the price on the wait sorry
yeah
for e
okay so what do we what do you define
here uh we found a limitation of scalar
markets please everyone silence everyone
please so we found the limitation of
scalar markets in that you have to
specify ranges and if your outcome is
outside of the range just using the
market price is not going to be very
inform informative um we even saw that
on most pods the price of the up was not
even at 100 so we see like here we have
a huge Miss in the prediction potential
like if the market was close to 100 you
would have gotten the information that
the the weight is probably 100 or more
but here it was not even
100 so for scalar Market to be good at
giving you uh scalar outcomes you need
to have initial range which are good and
it's only an estimator of the
value if this value Falls within the
range you have to make the assumption
that the value fall within the range if
there are some risk of the value falling
outside of the range you will end up uh
with a bias estimate of this value so
another limitation of of prediction
markets so now we're going to go to
scalar Market well multiscalar Market
so what can we do we can estimate we can
estimate values but we can also estimate
proportions so for example we can make a
multiscalar market where we want to
estimate how many seat in the Europe in
the European Parliament with each party
will get so here you don't take position
on a particular value you take a
position on a particular share so in the
European Parliament well the amount of
of seties is fixed but here we will see
we will have a market where we don't
even know uh the the range the potential
range of of the value so let's go to
this
Market you can open uh the next two
boxes and here we're going to try to
estimate how many participant do we have
from each continent so open take the
continent amm
in this room
yeah so the you want to estimate the
share of participant per continent in
this
room in this room yeah yeah I know at
the morning they gave you the global
amount
so where you just were living before
coming
here oh no Let's do let's do where
you're born like where are you from like
answer the question it's subjective
people may have different answer to that
the question is where I'm going to ask
is where are you from
you have to put one here
also oh okay Asia is
what uh I can give you some you can come
pick some here
yeah in this room not the death gun in
this room
too easy
it's a war room not your part it's a W
room yeah
bet
with the
that's the percentage not the amount
that's a
percentage and you may not even know
what is the total amount so here you are
estimating a
percentage in Asia Ria
both both yeah so you're going to need
to no it's going to depend what people
answer so if they consider themselves
European or if they consider themselves
Asian yeah
okay so the market are
closing the market are closing and I'm
going to ask you
now so please everyone the market are
closing do your last trade and the
market are
closing okay here can can you close the
market close the
market market are closed
okay okay so
everyone please silence silence everyone
please so if you are from Europe raise
your hand if you are from Europe 1 two
three four five six
seven8 nine 10 11 12 13 14 15 so 15
Europe okay
if you are from Asia raise your
hand one two three four five six seven 8
9 10 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 so 20
from Asia
okay if you are from North America raise
your hand one two
three four five
five from North
America if you are from South America
raise your hand one two three four five
six seven eight
nine
nine oh in Europe I forgot to put myself
so that's
16 and if you are from Africa raise your
hand one two two from
Africa and if you are from oania raise
your hand one one one one one okay
one so let's do the
total 53
spe e
okay so now you have the value that the
token will redeem they redeem for the
percentage not the absolute value they
redeem for the
percentage and what's interesting that
we can show that your really were good
at estimating that like I saw a bunch of
PODS where the price of Asia even went
to the max to the maximum amount of
value in the
amm so you can see that it's a very good
mechanism for doing estimation of the
future where here obviously I I can't
wait a week for a future event so I'm
showing you this event happening in a
couple of minutes but you can see that
here on this particular room the market
were very efficient in estimating that
so everyone you can redeem the
tokens you're
redeeming okay okay no no don't do the
mat it's already
written so you don't need to do the mat
I gave you the percentage on the in the
slide
yes
yeah I gave you the percentage so the
each redem for the
percentage
huh it's based on the percentage I gave
you
38 get 38 for the Asian
token for each of your token you get 38
coins
we have one last round after that no no
we have a bit more because they were
already laid before I have the
prompter okay everyone
redeemed everyone
redeem so if you haven't redeem in your
pod raise your hand if you haven't
finished
redeeming oh
okay you redeem everything redeemed
okay so please everyone everyone silence
thank you please everyone silence so for
now we've been using markets to make
prediction about the
future but the question is how can we
use those prediction to make a better
decision so here in this example you
will have a market who will be the
candidate of the Democrat
Party and you will get a token of this
maret Market but then you can put this
token into another Market which will be
which party will win the election so
here you put some die you get some Biden
token you put the Biden token into
another market and now you get a token
which will redeem for die if Biden is a
candidate and the Democratic party wins
the
election the other token they don't
trade for die they trade for the
underlying so here Biden so here you
have a Biden Democrat token that you
trade with Biden token and if this token
is worth 30 Biden token you have a
conditional probability that if Biden is
a
candidate Democratic party will have 30%
chance of winning the
election so you can shange the
market and what can you do with that
well we're going to start we're going to
start to show that that so I need a
volunteer someone who is not vegan a
non-vegan volunteer
please non-vegan
volunteer okay you can
come uh okay
so the volunteer will have the choice of
either trying a cricket snack or some
fried fish
skin and here we have two markets so one
market on what will he choose but after
trying it will give a a rating out of
10 and you have Market on this rating so
that's going to be conditional Market
you will have a conditional Market on
what would be the rating given if he
picks the cricket or what would be the
rating given if he picks the
fishkin so you can open the
amm with uh cregor fishkin
and what is important is on the first
two token they are trading for
coins but then the other tokens they
don't trade for coins they trade for the
underlying
token so the first two tokens they trade
for coins the four last token they don't
trade for coins they trade for the
underlying token which is written on the
on the
sheet and if you have any question as
usual you can call me
uh you can participate in the market yes
but please don't tell
everyone and so keep in mind you can
always meant complete set if you want
you may not want to trade in the market
of what would be the snack chosen but
you may just want to trade on the
conditional Market on the rating
conditional on the particular snack
being chosen
I will be
back
oh okay
okay if you have any question raise your
hand yeah
you have the token or there can you show
the token yeah yeah you have F skin but
you have the smaller one you put the
smaller one
here token for these I I some for the
plums and for the other
uh you don't have them here can you
check over there I think over there
and so here you have tokens of like 10
50 and 300 so if you are buying you are
buying two token of 50 for example
for now you don't need to use a
300 but so for example here if you are
paying you can get two token of 50 but
because this token you're going to you
can use it into those other
markets that's why we also give you
token of 10
then so here first you can get quicket
and fishkin and you you can open the
last box I think you will have in the
last box
yeah oh because they gave us I have a
promter with a timer here 520 520 was uh
because like I have here like giving
like 17
minutes because the last team they
finish a bit later so I we don't have
the 10 minute to set up the the space
but this gonna be the last uh element I
do this one and after I finish
it
yeah yeah
and what will be the
rating if this is the particular snack
which is
chosen who was the guy who was Chen no
he say he will come
back
yeah oh yeah he's back he's back
you think a
that's up
up what
like what no is
there
oh yeah
yeah no
100 yeah two so you will get 100 of each
so that would be like two of 50 or one
of 50 and five of
10 oh yeah I saw I saw the GU there
oh no no the rating is to 10 rating is
of 10
yeah they can
only no no you you you put uh like one
like that and five like that for example
you need you need to do 100 total so if
you mean to complete set or if you buy
if you buy here you will buy uh
well you can for 100 for 100 you will
get you will get
that and then if you want you can
actually um take some position on those
Market why be neutral on those you you
don't even need to make a like a bet on
this you can make the pred only on the
rating
yeah oh no no so you get 100 100 total
you have the 10 where are the 10 you
have some token of 10 token this token
no you have C of 10 also
I think there's
somewhere here here I
think be 10
somewhere 10 for the fish right fish can
yeah I just gave so here you have to buy
with the underlying token so here you
have your fish skin you can buy fish
skin up or Fishin down
you can me the set by giving this and
you will get a cent of up and down yeah
yeah yeah and you can me a set of fish
up and down if you
wish 100 100
yeah exactly
okay last
trade last
trade where is our volunteer okay
here
so what we saw is that there are a lot
of PODS where both stay around 50 but
you Al so have some pods where the
cricket stays at 50 but the fish the
fish skin goes to 70 so you can actually
use this as a tool to help your decision
on what do you want to to take because
you can see that the because you can see
the market believe you will get the
higher rating to the fish K than to the
cricket because lot of PODS there are
5050 and you have some pod which are at
50 70 so here you can use the market as
a tool to make a decision so which uh
snack are you going to choose I will
choose the fish and I do that from the
beginning so I I took r on fish
oh
so the fish is showan and what is
interesting here is because we had an
actor which could influence the market
well this actor took the token of what
he was going to
do
okay we let you finish it
so what is the rating out of 10 seven so
the rating is seven so you have the
fishkin token which redeemed and you
also have the fishkin up redeeming for
seven and the fish skin down redeeming
for
three oh no all the market are closed
all the market are closed and the
workshop is also closed that was the
last that was the last element
so I let you redeem and uh so thanks
everyone for for coming to this
Workshop I hope it allowed you to
understand how prediction Market Works
how you can use those to predict the
future at least
probabilistically to evaluate potential
future values and also as a tool to help
decision as we saw with the fishkin and
Cricket market so thanks everyone for
coming to the workshop and if you could
please help to put back the coin in the
boxes and the card if you also put them
in the boxes that would be great also so
thanks everyone and if you can help us
for cleanup that will be great in order
not to delay uh anything so thanks
everyone for coming and uh hope you I
got you interested in prediction
markets sir yeah where can I get a set
of to teach at the local high school