all right so I want to give a
presentation about Geonosis also a
prediction market I directly skip the
slide
what is the predict market we just saw
auger so I started with why aetherium
and I can make this very concrete
because I started a project called la
about 2 years ago and it was a Bitcoin
prediction market and there are several
problems with that so for example if you
now want to open LA from your current
position from inside the UK then you see
this side and another thing is obviously
security so we had the goal to build a
decentralized friction market that would
mean that on the one hand yeah as a user
should not need to trust us so the goal
would be that always the money that is
in predictions is somehow stored in in a
multi SiC contract and it might be
possible it might be possible or it
might be that it is possible to achieve
this goal with Bitcoin the problem is it
is very very complicated would take long
development and you have to make yeah it
would be not a good user experience and
that's very different with with the
serial but the theorem it's way much
easier and so the one point is the user
perspective that the user do not has to
trust us but the other point is that the
theorem is also great for us for our
perspective because we do not want
to spend resources on security we do not
want to hold the cold wallet of bitcoins
of our users because it's it's just risk
and just a cost that can be avoided with
material so what's the current status of
gnosis we went live a few days after
frontier we since then have a little bit
more than 900 contract interactions and
a little bit more than 5000 ether in
predictions so I just now want to give
you the demo and I will
okay and I want to make a demo and show
how a prediction market can be used for
decentralized decision making so I think
the the I can skip the usual use case
the usual use case would be you'd
predict on a specific event who becomes
the next president one of the
Canonical's but i want to show you how
how to use the prediction market for
decision-making so let's say we take
this example of you Joe this music
platform and we want to make a decision
what is the good price to charge and the
goal
the overall goal should be to maximize
the total the total revenue and another
example could be a decentralized
exchange and the decision would be what
fees to be charged and again the goal is
to maximize the over real revenue so how
would work with kenosis you can suggest
an event you would choose what price
should be charged you would specify
closing date category and then you could
select a few suggestions for example 40
years and 60 cents and so on so I skip
this and go directly to to the market we
we can create with this and there we
have we have four suggestions for this
n6780 cents and one ether and now in
principle we can we can try it here we
can select select the share we want to
buy specify a price
and usual stuff all very similar to to
auger in this case but we can also use
this button or use this by all outcomes
that would mean we can spend amount of
ether let's say hundred and and we would
get shares of each outcome now the
second step is to create another market
and that would be what is the total
revenue in in US dollar on the music
platform in 2015 and now we can create
more markets and we select our we
selectors we select the total revenue in
2015 and now the interesting part is
that we can select the currency in
principle the currency would be easier
or we are agnostic towards currencies
could be any any - anything that
implements the token interface but if
someone comes up with a dollar token
someone comes up with a bit current
token dye or whatever that can be
choosen but we can also choose token
directly from our platform and what does
it mean so we choose now we choose now
what price will be charged on huija
first song and we select one specific
outcome so basically what we create now
is market that is traded in shares of 80
cent will be the price of the song
and that means that this market will
only be relevant if the decision is made
because only then those shares will have
the value of one ether and otherwise
they will have a value of zero so
basically in the other case if this if
this price is not chosen then all trades
are irrelevant so what you achieve is
you say what will be the total revenue
under the condition that we make this
decision that we charge 80 cents for
song so how would it look like we create
such a market and he says okay it's
trade in 80 cent shares and here's the
the forecast on on the on the outcome so
in this case the forecasted revenue
would be 5000 dollars and people can now
trade and they can basically go long or
short and therefore increase or decrease
the forecast and in the end we will have
the different screen resolution in mind
but anyways okay so in the end we have
four for those different markets for one
that's traded in $0.40 shares and for
the one that's traded in 60 10 shares we
have different predicted outcomes and
then after specific trade trading period
we can automatically select the decision
that has the highest predicted outcome
we saw yesterday demonstration of bought
room where there there are different
suggestions and you could all you could
automatically connected to the
prediction market and automatically
create for every potential decision the
market and forecast the price of the
token of this project under the
condition that this decisions make made
and I think that's a very powerful tool
and I'm very excited to see how how this
will will turn out okay
what what is our goal of of Knossos our
goal is to be British market as a
platform that means we are agnostic
toward towards Oracle's we already have
seen during this conference very
interesting ideas for Oracle's for
example of this direct interaction with
AP eyes Oracle eyes so all Oracle's will
be supported by us you can specify just
to resolve the address all tokens will
be supported we support different market
makers we have already implemented
automated market makers and the idea is
that it will be easy to create different
skins for different topics again
everyone can become an Oracle we will
provide an Oracle platform we are
already working on option trading for ya
faster trading we integrate our platform
with crowdfunding so it
people can crowdfunding market makers
they are interested in a forecast they
can crowdfunded and again different
tokens are possible very short look at a
little bit of code create event what
what are the parameters so we have a
hash of the event description then we
have event type we distinguish between
two types types where we have different
number of outcomes that would be the
different prices there we had four
potential outcomes and then we have
numeric outcomes where we predict on a
range that would be the total revenue
then we have you resolve the address
that's basically the Oracle and some
additional data Oracle can choose fees
that's all you need to implement those
three functions if you want to be an
Oracle or
you want to create an Oracle contract
and finally we would like to be British
market as a service that would mean we
aim for one-click deployment if you have
some topic you're interested it should
be as easy as setting up a wordpress
block to set up a prediction market on
this topic should then be easy to
customize it integration of other
services and build up your community or
use it within your own company thank you
with two men two minutes left I think
like we could allow I could allow one
one two questions so is there a way to
you know how we had to create different
markers for the 40 cent 60 cent 80 cent
price and you know you have to
individually come up with those right
it's there a way to like make it less
discreet just one name by one if two
dollars might be the optimum price but
we didn't think of that and we didn't
create the market for that right so the
the easiest version would be that anyone
could just make another suggestion that
you always have other price and then you
can split this other price up into a new
suggestion and again other one or you
could but that gets more complicated
you could also they have a range or yeah
use uses range predictions and forecasts
that on another range prediction I guess
from from would be better to just people
then you'll have markets for the second
digit which will be could be understood
to mean like 41 7 42 cents up to 49
cents and so forth so you
thank you thank you