[Applause]
everyone my name is everybody I'm a
researcher and a product market
consensus builder being here I'm Ally a
person of my age so over the last couple
months we've been trying to figure out
ways to measure and define the
decentralization
generally in the most popular
comparative metric between for the
tallest is Rupa most of us know that
work decentralized in spirit watching as
the lower the throughput at least at
this stage of the text evolution so
transactions percent in there not a very
effective measurement so what we
actually talk about when we talk about
decentralization how can we objectively
measure its extent and to monitor its
evolution over time obviously these
undulation of decentralization is that
the binary is or is the condition but a
very complex and emergent process that
will change this never grace what David
could me man
objectively originally we set out to
define a cushion or some standard
measurement that replaced throughput as
compared to data plan club we quickly
realized that we get into apples oranges
pretty fast when we try to compare most
of these metrics across protocols so we
never focus a bit to say what can we
effectively measure on tea room right
now and watch Jam over time what's
actually happened on main net and what
does it tell us about the progress we're
making or not making so here the
questions we set up answer this etherium
actually getting where these
part of their metrics so the net worth
getting more centralized does the data
reveal areas we need to focus on
addressing our changing give that some
of the trends were observing can we make
any meaningful predictions about the
future and which of these metrics can be
very possible so our approach to
measuring the entity civilization over
time began with determining which
elements of appearance architecture both
on and off chain most significantly
impacted space optimization so let's run
off with at this stage of the research
we did by nineteen key subsystems spread
across four different categories to
investigate we attempted to anchor our
conclusions in as much launching and
objective data as possible which can get
tricky and it's also important to note
that there are hard data points that we
have not covered that we wish we could
because there's an important but not
necessarily on chain and there they can
be very difficult to quantify those
include concepts like the strength and
distribution of power grids on which
notes
run and legal jurisdictions and relative
stability of countries on which a large
thumbs and notes are posted so whereas
many of these data points as possible we
track the revolution the corner reporter
as far back as possible essentially from
the earliest days of theory through
gradual adoption rampant speculation
hacks cryptokeys bubble and sort of the
subsequent course correction
see the path yourself so we magically
charted about 20 or so different metrics
obviously no time to run through all
those dead so we chose a few of the
spread across these different categories
that we're gonna talk about a bit so
looking an account growth we looked at
start off looking at total come from
over time compared to active count
growth over time so the x-axis is
quarter a reporter across the past four
years will be on most of the charts that
we see and then the blue line is to
either grow over time and the red line
is active addresses which we define as a
versus a transact at least once and that
spike in q2 is the Shanghai PAC that
come to so we see a conference
increasing steadily over time but we see
active addresses more or less starting
to flatten after the bubble so as it
wasn't used to know what what this is
the growing Delta between the two lines
over time which likely is due to the
increase in smart monarchic to be on the
network rather than just simple p2p
value transfers
here's another account growth graph this
one shows account growth over time by
total addresses and gray versus the
dresses with a nonzero peak balance and
orange so what we see is a fairly steady
and not server addresses on the network
with no major bumps even during the
dramatic price fluctuations we can't
necessarily say this music spent a
steady increase in the number of
individuals who leave because the
addresses are sooo not synonymous but
what we should consider again is the
bring bells between the new addresses
and the new non-zero addresses that is
getting suddenly wider that's worse than
our contracts emerge smart contract
addresses have to know any balance we're
seeing a pretty clear increase in both
nonzero addresses bands from our
contract addresses over time the
aleutian could indicate a network is
supporting more diverse investment or
decentralized Texas business logic
[Applause]
this following graph illustrates each
ownership of the top ten 101,000
addresses compared to total supply of
your time so the bottom in red the top
ten and then yellow our top 11 200 and
then top 101 to a thousand and all the
way up to hundred percent so the story
that is tells it's fairly obvious we see
the top 10 and 100 addresses on the 8th
your network don't any steadily lower
percentage of the total of holding that
could just be like you do the as a
passive result of increase in supply
over time we do see some of these larger
accounts possibly be pushed into down
into lower tiers of ownership while
others took their place which also can
account for the recent uptick we see and
the percentage of each of a 1000
addresses in the past few port when
we're looking at the trend of ownership
since 2015 we see that the ownership is
becoming more diverse across practices
we can't assume that more new addresses
means more new unique individuals
participating the network however we can
see that the number of nonzero addresses
are increasing and the concentration of
the top 10 and 100 are decreasing
alongside each other over time this
could possibly suggest that contrary to
popular area bicker the bubble was not
overwhelmingly followed by Wales and
holders buying back crypto at those lows
just to make a buck what would be the
eventual market uptick rather this
negative correlation could suggest that
more and more new people began
accumulating at a steady rate after the
bubble which alongside grown in
circulation could have been reducing the
percentage of concentration of these top
10 and 100 well holders so the ecosystem
being as young as it is the unequal
concentration of wealth isn't
necessarily a huge red flag for
decentralization in the long term even
with the still large concentration of
wealth by Wales
etherium is still pretty far ahead
compared to other watching protocols at
least on this metric looking ahead of
our birth concentration in the hands of
a few becomes more of a concern when we
shift to proof of state and influence on
the network becomes more closely
correlated with inertia as the beacon
chain gets emotional and SPOs replaces
proof of work it will be important to
watch out for the speaking power
concentrating in the hands of you
so this graph shows the total
circulating vitamin e is compared to the
circulating volume of select PRC 20
tokens which are shown as to evaluate an
equal so this green line shows the total
amount of circulating ie moving between
addresses for a reporter it's
essentially correlated with the price of
beef with the spike and circulating beef
aligning with the price high and late
2017 in her name to maintain and then
the bar chart shows the value of a
select few eat RC 20 tokens circulating
quarter reporter we looked at the top 10
by market cap plus a few interesting
months we want to look at like diox
Matic Ansley the purpose of this graph
is to see effectivity Americas they were
diverse from both the utility and the
speculation perspective what we think it
shows that displayed a relatively
stagnant Heath price recently the diet
and circulating tokens is increasing
dramatically and not only is the
circulating value increasing of the
diversity and market share of tokens are
increasing to suggesting that users are
using more AR c22 events and
these two graphs one the top one log
shows the growing concentration of mind
polls over time as measured by
percentage of total block production on
the top and the percentage of the total
minors already paid out on the bottom
and in each of these graphs each color
corresponds to the same mining pool so
for instance the green that's on the
bottom of each rep it is either mine and
so on the rest so over time we see that
four pools have really started to
dominated by a pool landscape those are
either my knife to pool our pool and
animal collectively they edged up pasts
previous competitors like buying a pool
tub and and indoor pool which are can
see their sincerity see their their
importance in that's three quarters so
those four rules or maybe pools now
account for over 72% of quarterly block
production again the top graph and in a
up to about 82 percent of the minors
across mining pools McGinnis that's the
bottom graph so in particular received
complete concern but possibly concerned
dominance and block reduction between
ether line and start pool which today
account for just under 50 percent of
lots produced reporter and together we
see keep in mind an annual payout of
nearly seventy percent of the miners on
chain so the concentration of influence
among a few mining pools is definitely
not ideal but it's not necessarily a
major concern by itself
miners are people agnostic they will
migrate to whatever the pool offers the
best incentives and if we assume
rational behavior by miners as a single
order to reach a half day close to 50
percent or start a basically
with other rules to mount a 51% attack
it's not outside of the possibility to
presume that minors would abandon those
fools to protect their income and switch
to other rules however when we look at
the number of buying goals of - over
time as shown by this graph with mining
pools in the orange and miners in in red
we see the steep decline and both over
the past year in short what this means
that we had fewer minors that are active
on fewer mining pools and fewer mining
pools being responsible for network
maintenance that's a quick note it's
important to say that the number of -
red is not entirely accurate we based
the number of miners my pool space off
on chain mail addresses but some but my
impulse pay out there might have off
changes through more traditional bank
deposits so these numbers will be that
although we can't tell those off to
numbers so you know overall mining pools
could be an area of increasing
centralization on the theory we have
lower each prices reduce block rewards
and a fairly stagnant - great that could
be the reason / - not joining the mining
pools recently and also we just have a
loss of efficiency concentrating the
power of mining pools in fewer and fewer
mining pools so with an eye towards the
future the eventual switch to groov
mistake will redefine the symmetric of
centralization but until then it's
fairly prudent that we keep an eye how
this concentration of mining pools and
miners in the relative network evolved
over time so next one look at at no
diversity so this data is from no
tracker on your stance and shows that
they'll account by country starting 2018
which is unfortunately only as far back
as the data goes it's event so the warm
colors are the highest that counts and
the cooler color the lower note counts
and in general we definitely see some an
unfortunate bear areas that stay pretty
consistent over time such as the African
continent but we do see pretty uniform
fluctuations rather than random seven
spikes and in different geographical
areas that are on the Wolfram sort of
other countries and it's also helpful to
see that the network is physically quite
constricted into centralized across the
globe and across a variety of legal and
political systems so these two graphs
look at the known science vs. pricing
there's been a lot of fluctuation and
the total council notes running if
you're in network right now for example
I think the number is about half of what
this time last year so I'm surprised
that looks a lot like civilization there
are fewer notes overall and presumably
fewer people running notes there are a
lot of reasons why that could be you but
these graphs show two factors we don't
have to see if there's a correlation so
on the Left we're comparing the number
of active nodes to the average keith
kreis for no reporter actually this is a
week over week so maybe even the price
is high it's a common belief that more
people think it's worth it to run those
that doesn't actually seem to be the
case at least over the person 2019 which
is again all the data we are able to get
when we look at them to account in the
same graph in blue as the egress in
green and it looks like there's actually
a medial correlation the new account was
one of the slowest plants in June when
the price is the highest and the count
was quite high during the price tip at
the end of the summer so even if this
correlation might have been true
historically and that's why people think
it exists it doesn't seem to be true
right now so then on the right we
checked with no account against the
total size of a default note of my death
which is the red line and a parody which
is the orange line about 97% of all the
things on the network arrangement of
those two clients and about 95 percent
of the notes on the network or to fall
notes and
to excellence which recipe much fair
game for them
obviously the average you know that size
is more or less increased over time as
boxer mind it seems reasonable to assume
that is the default note size gets
bigger it gets much spensive and takes
more energy to keep snow running and
keep it synced so maybe sure people are
doing so and that looks like it's the
case when we look at the graph on the
right or at least we see a clear
relationship than there is with the
price of these as we move toward Kos and
charting the network the notes I
Ferdinand won't have to be as much an
issue so maybe this patrician will
continue on the same trend into next
year there are also some interesting
experiments happening around the
ecosystem to find ways to make bringing
a know easier and cheaper so we want to
keep tracking so we set up to start
measuring decentralization we of course
envision this your fabulous graph or
tracker that would compare pretty
consistent decentralization metrics
across protocols that very quickly as
balanced as the beginning sort of
evolved into comparing apples and
oranges and we of course recognize that
based off the consensus algorithm you
can't compare the same metrics across
protocols and so we took that original
nineteen subsystems that we showed we
said hey what
once will be possibly a competently
compare across at least 50 protocols and
via for instance have a proof of
authority or a tune of a Buick law
change very different than it would for
a report of state law change and so the
next step would be this first third
conclusion we're not a large appointment
not so not necessarily trying to make a
decision about if these is doing a good
or bad job decent rising theory where
you can make any value judgment
it's obviously activity on your theory
is getting more diverse that develop
their minds for action
growing the Romanian steady progress on
security and on the introduction abuse
cases like defy have objected a lot of
factors of into destabilization and
activities that we've done necessarily
have time to analyze yet so it's safe to
argue that aetherium is far ahead most
of the protocols in terms of sort of
this you know network an ecosystem of
decent utilization fourth division is
that over the next over the lifetime of
the network we've seen a much greater
complexity and more layers of activity
happening off chain which we can see
here that will just get worse over time
so in some sense this doesn't make that
a perfect track but that also makes the
security and decentralization of the
base settlement layer that much more
important to watch of the map we also
wanted to point out that it's really
important to have this historical data
of the network so we can all watch these
metrics continue to evolve during this
it's much better at tracking Gator than
any other critical but it can still be
surprisingly hard to find let alone make
sense of this very soon you know big
picture and stuff so ether scam shared
some of their non-public historical
didn't record data with us which we
really appreciate them we also want to
say thanks to our colleagues they like
you
especially Phenix we meant no more
rocket for helping us follow this data
increase efficiency so as you mentioned
we didn't have time to go over a lot of
the other graphs that we pulled the name
and analyze for sort of the study of D
civilization so we have about a dozen or
so more than that time to look but we're
going to build a page on Alessio which
is a data analytics platform where
anyone interested can view those graphs
and then hopefully in the near future
we'll have a lot of tracker of these
metrics over time this will have to
constantly I'll take them and reanalyze
them so this is just a few of the other
graphs we have time to analyze including
function calls on the top left that
smaller one does include transfer on the
bottom right just remove transfer it get
it clear review the other function calls
looked at each trading volume over Texas
and then gas fees and then just a
different way of looking at the top the
top address concentration so we really
hope this is something of interest to
the network that people continue to ask
some questions about it continue
exploring it suggest some additional
metrics or ways to quantify those
subsystems over time and if you have any
questions please definitely reach out to
us and enjoy the rest of death
[Applause]